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Global inventories tight feed demand season

Number of visits: Date:2016-9-9 05:23

    Estimate soybean meal rapeseed meal first adjust again rose in April. Early April Suggestions to soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the dips partial building many positions for the main ideas. Buy wheat soybean meal was slightly better than buying.

  The first part reviews in the market

 Soybean meal in March, CBOT5 month contract prices rose in February after continue edged up market, futures in the callback to stand again after 450 cents. Whole month rose 2.74%, up 12.5 cents per bushel. As of March 28, soybean meal may contract closed at 469 cents a bushel.
Dalian and bean (4164, 4.00, 0.10%) and a good meal, in recent months, contract performance is slightly better. Main contract M1409 gained 4.05% full month, the month in line. Futures closed at 393 yuan/ton, right is still in the big rise under the along.

In march of zhengzhou is similar to soybean meal, rapeseed meal movements ended higher after initially falling. Delisting RM1403 closing at 2590 prices. Main contract RM1409 contract once rose to 2600 yuan/ton. As of March 28, RM1409 contract closed at 2587 yuan/ton, all month rose 2.70%.

  The second part of fundamental analysis

  1、Inventory tight, U.S. soybean acreage will increase dramatically

  On March 31, the United States department of agriculture in the area sown to quarterly inventory report released on Monday, and intention to predict data, analysts' expectations, the United States department of agriculture report Monday will display the farmer's soybean planting area of 81.8 million acres, because prices are high. Market is expected, the agriculture department inventory report will show, as of March 1, domestic supply fell to a 10-year low. From the point of market expectations, soybean planting area will increase and may have reached record levels, and quarterly inventory levels are expected to be cut. Analysts on average expected U.S. soybean stocks at 989 million bushels, slightly below the year-ago level. In contrast, on December 1, 2013 soybean stocks of 2.15 billion bushels, March 1, 2013 soybean stocks of 999 million bushels. As news, more bearish each have one, but usually inventory changes impact on prices to play in the changes of cultivated area, because the area of the calendar year end of march data are higher than the actual acreage, due to the current market affected by the beautiful bean supplies directly, quarterly inventory reduction or the market value of the degree is more apparent. Print out estimates of soybean and soybean meal futures market slightly bullish.
 

  2、Domestic soybean meal demand insipid

  In march, the domestic soybean meal consumption demand, the spot market price is stable. Up late soybean meal price in north China, tianjin JiuSan 43% soybean meal price 3550 yuan/ton. Coastal areas of shandong soybean meal price is relatively stable, sunshine New Orleans - price 3500 yuan/ton. Jiangsu taizhou sea of 3770 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand still belongs to the low season, part of the enterprise inventory pressure still remains, to continue in a stop state, may the basis to maintain a line is in 200 yuan/ton.

  3、Domestic demand for rapeseed meal peak season is coming

  Has now stepped into the spring, with the southern air temperature gradually raised, aquaculture progress gradually improved. Among them, the jiangsu and zhejiang area as early as mid-march entered larvae in purchasing period, region of guangdong last week also have begun to open tent put winter miao, tilapia seedlings of them have short. This means that the aquatic products industry officially launched the feed stock cycle, and rapeseed meal consumption after the qingming festival is expected to be a substantial increase. Feed this year due to the breeding of enterprises look pale, before purchasing intention of rapeseed meal is not high. But as the aquaculture, feed enterprises purchase intention has been improved, it will support the domestic wheat prices. As domestic import rapeseed (0, 4973.00, 100.00%) to the port and the rising of rapeseed crushers starts, domestic wheat inventories increased, but because of rapeseed meal consumption season approaching, rapeseed meal booking maintain strong momentum, not to perform the contract amount has maintained high level, so the rapeseed meal supply pressure is not large, local still show a tight state. According to statistics, so far, places such as guangdong and guangxi rapeseed meal inventory is about 58300 tons, since mid-february, has been relatively stable, and the area of rapeseed meal did not perform the contract amount is about 445000 tons. Rapeseed meal, therefore, its supply tight pattern has not changed, and the main pressure supply is not the market.

 4、Domestic pig prices still impress, the central reserve collection and storage of frozen pork

  Central cold meat for purchasing of news came again, it is understood that in 2014 the first batch of the central reserve pork 13:30 - purchase bidding on March 27, ticket. The quotation for purchasing quantity of 65000 tons of frozen pork, varieties to meet the national standards of GB9959.2 segmentation of 2, 4-2008 frozen pork, handed over to the frozen pork reserve must be stockpiled trading day after the production and processing products. The message in the March 27 formally announced in the future. It is absolutely good for feed market, because the hog prices rebound the fundamental factors of soybean meal stronger.
 

  The third part of technical analysis

  CBOT soybean has been at the top of the rise, above the 1450 cents a strong resistance. Look from the index, short-term correction request, therefore should be careful of profit-taking after the USDA report on Monday. From the DCE soybean meal market, the recent futures continued to modestly direction remains the same, is expected in the short term futures fell sharply. Combined with spot prices are still higher than the futures price and consumption has already begun to take advantage of the downstream prices inventory actively, futures have no reason to plunge. Look from the technical indicators M1409 bottom is gradually raised. As aquaculture began to recover after April, rapeseed meal fundamentals than soybean meal will be more better. The spot price of the futures price of stronger support.

  The fourth part afternoon looking and operation suggestion

  From the point of the fundamental and technical analysis, April CBOT soy ended higher after initially falling probability. Domestic soybean meal after adjusting for short-term downside is limited, give priority to with steadily rising. Estimate early April mainly small shock adjustment, mid to late April will continue to rise. Should focus on soybean meal and rapeseed meal in recent months, and far on conversion. But because of the bird flu has not yet been eliminated, suggest that buy on dips rapeseed meal better than buy soybean meal. Early April is to build the dips partial long positions for the main train of thought, we still emphasize rapeseed meal and soybean meal don't chase after go up, but after the callback to buy. RM1501 as the reference, it is best to under 2350 bulls play more secure.
 

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